《集中供应致短期下行,市场调整育长期潜力》｜亿翰长租年度观点

引言：

2024年1月5日，由亿翰智库主办的“2024亿翰年度策略发布会”成功召开。

其中，长租版块活动分为年度策略分享和对话论坛两部分，亿翰智库董事、副总裁邱明华发表了《集中供应致短期下行,市场调整育长期潜力》策略观点分享，并且邀请到了新黄浦实业集团租赁住房运营负责人张彬南和亿翰智库董事、副总裁邱明华共同开展了主题为《大型租赁社区如何做好增值服务和社群活动》的对话论坛。

集中供应致短期下行

市场调整育长期潜力

邱明华亿翰智库董事、副总裁

亿翰智库董事、副总裁邱明华分享了《集中供应致短期下行,市场调整育长期潜力》策略观点，演讲分为三部分：

第一，宏观环境；

第二，2023年租赁住房市场发展十个总结；

第三，2024年租赁住房市场五个趋势。

2024年租赁住房行业

发展趋势

1. 城中村改造和保障性住房成明年工作重点，市场化公寓去化承压

2024年，以城中村改造和保障性住房为主的新保障体系成为工作重点，但随着市场租赁需求减少，市场化长租公寓企业仍处于增量阶段，叠加保租房持续入市，明年市场化长租公寓将面临去化压力。

2. 未来保租房持续入市，预计租金持续下行

未来保租房将进入持续供应阶段，但供应量相交2023年将大幅减少，从市场量价走势来看，2023年，上海集中式长租公寓平均租金持续下降，预计随着保租房的持续供应，租金将呈下行趋势。

3. 国央企仍是新品牌中坚力量，服务式公寓或受投资机构青睐

品牌方面，地方国企在长租公寓品牌占比中逐渐走高，各地不同层级的国资企业持续加大建设保障性租赁住房的力度。从投资角度来看，城市间投资赛道出现分化，一线城市仍是投资热点城市，投资者对细分赛道的聚焦将出现变化，投资人将持续聚焦中高端长租公寓，但同时也将目光放到保租房为主的大众化市场。

4. 保租房与市场化项目布局分化，城市核心区域可重点关注

上海保租房主要集中在浦东新区、闵行、及松江三个板块，区域产业较为发达，人口也较为密集，城郊区域保租房相对较多，市场化长租公寓竞争压力较大。而城市核心区域内保租房布局较少，市场化长租公寓布局较多，服务式公寓供应有限，存在潜在增量空间

5. 绿色、环保、节能将成为租赁住房产品设计的关注重点

随着全球对可持续发展的日益重视，企业践行 ESG 已经成为共识，租赁市场进入绿色低碳发展也成为必然趋势，将“绿色”概念引入租赁住房领域，从以往满足基本居住需求到给住户提供宜居、低碳的绿色居住环境。

对话论坛

大型租赁社区如何做好增值服务和社群活动

张彬南新黄浦实业集团租赁住房运营负责人

邱明华亿翰智库董事、副总裁

Q | 现场观众:

活动参加人的比例，不同活动能覆盖到客户的占比？每次名额覆盖率不高？

A | 新黄浦·筑梦城张彬南:

从商务端来考量，争取到更多的导师资源，我们还可以为企业客户做定制，相当于员工福利；还可以让租户参与进来，培养成为导师，形成互动；这几个方面结合起来，可以让活动的参与度更高，覆盖面更广。

Q | 现场观众:

假设再有一个位置更好的R4项目，想问下张总对户型的设计怎么考虑？是多一些30平的小户型还是45-60的大户型？

A | 新黄浦·筑梦城张彬南:

今后如果再做R4项目，以1000套的社区为例，会做一些极致的小户型、一些40到60的两室和大户型，因为市场上有需求，而且提升社区的品质。

Q | 现场观众:

共享设施的后期是怎么处理维护和费用的问题？

A | 新黄浦·筑梦城张彬南:

关于公区损坏的问题，像健身房这类大投入的资产，我们倾向于采用合作的方式，可以产生收费，但价格必须合理。

Q | 现场观众:

想问下咱们项目的商业配套在项目的占比是多少？

A | 新黄浦·筑梦城张彬南:

我们项目是18万方左右，除去交给政府的场地，我们的商业面积在5千左右，占比是3%

Q | 现场观众:

对于煤气、燃气客户有需求么，愿意为此付出资金的占比多少？

A | 新黄浦·筑梦城张彬南:

非常多的客户为独立厨房和燃气买单，特别是家庭客户对铁锅烧菜还是有情结的。燃气不仅解决了烧饭的问题，还解决了热水器的问题，降低了客户的成本，同时，我们也要加强对燃气使用安全的关注，这是对租户，也是对我们的负责。

声明：本文观点仅代表作者观点

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