买房送年猪？老家的房子能买吗？

今天是大年初三，有不少朋友已经走过亲戚，不免面临这么几个问题“什么时候结婚”，“什么时候买房”……

一些朋友回到了三四线的老家，看着久别重逢的故土，心生温暖，加上经不住家里人的“软磨硬泡”，开始琢磨到底要不要在老家买上一套。

近期，已经有不少县城的楼盘开始行动起来，有买房送年猪的；到高速口就开始揽客的；买房送家电、送装修……各类花样层出不穷。

最令大多数朋友纠结的，就是返乡置业，三四线城市老家的房子到底要不要买？

且听我们细细分析！

前几天，58同城、安居客的《2024春节置业意向报告》刚刚发布，数据调查显示：

| 超7成受访者希望在两年内买房、超8成选择在春节期间看房、买房；3001-5000元成为人们最倾向的月供区间；

57.3%的受访者谈及置业城市房价，表示“合适、可以接受”、33.4%的受访者表示“较高、勉强接受”；

有46.0%的受访者倾向于在工作城市买房，想在老家省会或周边城市买房以及在三四线老家买房的比重分别是16.9%和14.0%。

从这个数据上来看，其实结论很简单，计划买房的人，比前几年多了，但打算在三四线老家买的人，比从前要少，仅占不到20%。

不过，单从这个数据上，也不能武断的说三四线老家的房子没人买。

目前，三四线城市如今面临的，不仅是建设速度放缓的问题，更是人口减少的问题，在全国生育率普降的大背景下，叠加上人口外流，房价自然呈现出一片普降。

据国家统计局数据，12月三线城市新建商品住宅销售价格同比下降1.8%，三线城市二手住宅销售价格同比下降4.2%。

如果你近期关注楼市政策，或许你已经有所耳闻，北京、上海、广州等一线城市，在近期已经陆续在不同程度上放开了限购。

这对于不少外出奋斗的朋友们来说，还是很有吸引力的。

首先明确，三四线城市并不是不能买，而是要谨慎，大城市固然有着大城市的便利，但同时也有着一部分人群难以承受的压力和焦虑。

不对选择做评论，但在做选择前一定要理性。如果你未来确定要回到家乡，提前购置一套房产，当然是最为稳妥的。

但是如果这个城市已经进入到长期的房价下跌，并且没有相对优质的开发商来进行开发，那么最好保持最大程度的谨慎。

因此，至少从长线来看，在近年来没有明确发展规划的三四线城市，未来整体房价还是有不少下降空间的。

即使你确定要在三四线城市买房，再观望观望也不迟，说不定到时候更便宜。

如果你确定要在三四线买房，也尽量做好未来连年下跌，并且出手困难的心理准备。

不过，一部分土豪朋友们，是不太在乎房产跌价的。

根据一名读者的经验，2018年在山西老家买的房子，从收房到现在，也就去年过去住了一周，但是因为办理各种手续的原因，隔三差五总要过去，但孩子已在西安上学，时常不得已当天又赶回西安。

后来小区二手房挂牌价比当初买的时候还低了25万，虽然以他的财力不是很在意。

但如此大费周章后，一想到今年回去住还要打扫好几天，索性继续留在西安过年。

所以在买之前，还是要想好。

另外，则还有一类的返乡置业，则是一线城市返乡二线城市，是否要买房。

这样来看，又是另一番景象。

从房产价值上来说，一线城市和二线城市的价差，可以说有着巨大的鸿沟，例如深圳新房均价在约5.9万/㎡，核心地段的价格可以到10-15万/㎡，更别提北京上海了。

而这些地方高额的房价，对于一些外出奋斗的朋友可能难以支撑，因此回到了二线城市，例如成都、西安、南京等进行置业。

至少二线城市通常有着更优质的基建，例如地铁、商业，以及教育体系，更别提医疗和就业机会了。

相比较来说，二线城市和一线城市之间的差距，是要小于三线城市和二线城市的差距。

因此来说，至少从发展前景来说，最理想的情况，是“人往高处走”，能奋斗到更高层级的城市去置业。

所以，要不要在老家买房，可以从这三点来分析。

第一：可预见的未来内，会不会回到老家发展

第二：有没有条件把家庭成员带到现在的城市一同生活

第三：未来能否顺利出手

其中一二这两条，都属于主观性的问题，结合自身情况即可，但第三点就相对重要了。

如果在老家买房，所在城市房子的流通性目前就已经很差了，其实最好不要盲目做出决定，至少从二线城市开始，房产的保值性和流通性都要强不少。

相比于不少同行的观点，买房一定要去更大更好的城市，制造焦虑，让大家去买更贵的房子，我们则认为房子是生活的载体，你准备生活在哪，就在哪买房。

教育还是投资，可以因人而异，一路名校加身的孩子，最终伤仲永的也不在少数，只要学校环境和教育氛围良好，就足够不少家庭放心了。

或许，你回到老家，父母催你在老家买房，可能他们也只是想多见见你，他们可能并不懂什么房贷利率、城市发展，你能做的就是多陪陪他们。

编辑=六言编审=周鑫

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div.autoTypeSetting24psection > p,div.autoTypeSetting24psection > section{margin-bottom: 24px;}

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