节后开工第一天，先祝大家开工大吉！回顾一周的春节假期，市场上终于出现了一些积极因素。

节前证监会换帅，A股迎来三连涨，回血一波。

春节期间的消费也终于终于回暖了，春节档电影票房突破80亿元，创新高，境内游市场火爆，三亚回城机票一票难抢；还有大家撒着欢的放烟花爆竹，不少人说今年春节终于找回了儿时过年的味道。

北京楼市，今年春节大部分售楼处都在开门营业，但是大家买房的热情并没有因为政策出台被激发。

倒是二线城市，因为限购政策彻底打开，吸引了不少三四线向上置换的人群，这个趋势需要关注，因为2024年一线城市的限购大门还会继续打开。

春节后，北京楼市迎来了“阳春季”，去年北京出台了一系列松绑政策，新房首付比例降到三成，二套房四成，通州的双限购还取消了，再结合入学潮，今年北京小阳春会迎来小高潮吗？

现在大家情绪还比较悲观，不过一些积极的因素也正在酝酿，我相信小阳春会如约而至。

二手房：学区房还在跌，挂牌量降下来了

二手房市场，唯一的好消息就是挂牌量还在继续下降。

根据北京链家中介统计的数据，2月18日，北京贝壳网二手房挂牌量137257套。从1月28日起，北京二手房挂牌量基本就在13.7万套左右徘徊。

图片来源于链家中介

从2024年1月份14万套左右，到目前13.7万套，北京二手房库存正在稳步下滑中，春节期间挂牌量也没有明显增加。

北京二手房挂牌量从高峰的16万套回落到现在的13.7万套，最主要的推动力就是政策，记得九月底，北京新政出台后首个月，北京二手房挂牌量就回落到15万套的水平，

此后挂牌量逐渐消化。

可以看出，北京新政虽然没有激起太多成交，但是却阻止了一场抛售潮，对于二手房东的信心有很大的提升作用。

这是楼市回暖的前提。

春节期间，北京中关村一小对口学区房东南小区因为降价上热搜了。

东南小区1月27日成交了一套54平米的两居，挂牌价680万元，最终638万元成交，折合单价11.8万元。

该小区2020年同户型成交价849万元，三年时间房价跌了200多万。

虽然降价幅度超过20%，但是该套房源成交周期只有七天，海淀学区房的流动性还是很强的，而且最近蜂鸟家园一套52平米的一居，总价达到了707万，比去年600多万回暖了不少。

北京5月份之前都是入学季，这段时间是学区房成交的主力，虽然2024年入学人口比2023年低了一些，但是今年小阳春学区房成交还会走量，但是价格还会以下跌为主。

不过，蜂鸟家园这样头部学区的占坑房价格可能会回暖哦。

新房：交房即降价，海淀现房还在涨

新房市场，春节期间看房的人很少，但依然阻挡不了海淀现房要涨价。

海淀永丰中海富华里现房已经启动排卡验资了，计划3月底、4月初开盘，户型包括：

80平两居（136套）

95/99/120/125三、四居（182套）

总价700~1100万之间，均价9万。（期房指导价8.5万元/平米）

海淀房价上涨不意外，毕竟即将开拍的翠湖新地块儿指导家也已经来到了8.5万元/平米。永丰北9万＋似乎也很合理。

然而去年下半年以来，北京新房指导价不断上涨，然而此前一批交付的新房价格却直接破发了。

之前我们的文章中提到过中海甲叁号院，贝壳上新挂出的房源，单价11.5万元/平米，当年指导价12.5万元/平米。

南三环宋家庄板块北京金茂府，新挂出一套次顶层边户房源，单价只有9.4万元/平米，当年新房价格11万元/平米。

这些还是南三环比较稀缺位置的改善新房，像前两年市场比较热的时候开盘的一批新房，今年逐渐迎来交付，新房价格破发是普遍现象。

大家购买新房时要注意这个问题。项目位置可能很好，但是现在的市场行情还能不能撑起不断上涨的价格。

今年开年，北京一批位置很好的新房即将入市。

比如位于南苑板块的中海公园里，已经发布了项目户型图。

中海郭公庄正式案名“丰禾叁号院”高层户型170~250平米，号称甲叁升级版

中建东孚郭公庄项目也发布了项目规划图。

华润大红门也以改善为为主，130～200平米，华润顶级的产品系

华润北神树项目也已经发布了项目规划，以刚改户型为主。

此外还有大瓦窑双子也都发布了项目的规划图。

春节后北京新房市场会非常热闹。价格战会如期而至吗？

土地：海淀、昌平南新地来了

2月21日~23日，北京会进行三场土拍，如下图，简单介绍一下地块所在位置。

2月21日，顺义新城第一街区01-03-21地块开拍，

地块就位于龙湖御湖镜的南侧，距离地铁15号线石门站直线距离约1.3公里，东侧是西辛小学仁和校区。

该地块位于顺义城区周边配套比较成熟，指导价4.6万元/平米，应该会做大户型改善产品。

2月22日，海淀翠湖地块和西红门0035地块土拍。

这两个地块受关注比较高，其中海淀翠湖科技园0024地块，周边有很多大厂，华为北研所，中国人寿科技园、创客小镇、中关村温泉科技园。

周边购买力可以，但是指导价涨到8.5万元/平米，会吸引海淀客户的目光吗？

地块容积率1.8，限高36米，大概率做大面积的改善洋房产品。

西红门6035地块，位于西红门东组团，目前在售的除了华润橡树湾系列，还有中建玖月府，目前均价6.4万元 /平米。

6035地块缺点还是很明显的，吉林经开高速噪音影响会比较大，而且距离规划的地铁站位置也比较远，优势就是去西红门商圈比较方便。

地块容积率2.5，限高45米，指导价还是6.6万元/平米

2月23日，昌平百善镇0004、0006地块土拍

，地块儿就位于沙河高教园板块儿内，中央财经大学沙河校区的东侧，距离沙河高教园站不算远。

目前板块内在售的新房是梧桐星宸，位置比新地要更好，昌平刚需，可以重点关注梧桐星宸

从土地端来看，节后出让的这几种地块位置都还不错，尤其是海淀新地扛大旗，北京还是想借优质低端来烘托一下市场热度的。

小阳春也可以多期待一下。

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