亿翰月报（2月）

行业政策：两会定调化解风险，2024年政策有三大看点

住宅市场：成交普遍探底，3月回升预计有限

土地市场：供需规模双降，杭州土拍保持热度

企业表现：销售普遍惨淡，民企获“白名单”融资仍较少

两会定调化解风险，2024年政策有三大看点

3月初，两会在风险防控和处置的大框架下定调房地产，提出了治标与治本的两大政策方向，据此我们认为2024年行业政策的看点主要在三方面，一是融资端的落地效果以及政策加码，二是需求端进一步促进多样化改善性需求释放的政策，以及商品房相关基础性制度构建，三是保障端的规划情况和建设进度。

回到2月具体政策，供需两端的政策力度并不大，需求端主要是几个核心城市出台边际宽松政策，融资端主要是城市房地产融资协调机制的继续推进。

成交普遍探底，3月回升预计有限

从我们监测的40城数据来看，2月全国商品住宅销售面积为618.3万平米，同比下行65.6%，环比下行42.6%，继2020年2月，此次是2017年以来40城成交量再度跌下1000万方，成为2020年2月之外的又一最差单月成交。

总而言之，2月市场成交十分惨淡，对于大部分城市来说，成交已经来到了2017年以来的底部，且这种行情是普遍的，过往显示韧性的城市也未能幸免。

市场行情如此低迷，是由于在此前导致市场下行的种种原因上，叠加了春节期间供需双方均无信心这一因素。

对于3月行情，我们认为“小阳春”或难以出现，基于房企推货和营销发力，成交量在底部水平上环比上升并不难，但是成交绝对量预计维持低位。

供需规模双降，杭州土拍保持热度

2024年2月，亿翰智库监测城市住宅用地供应建筑面积1009.5万平米，环比下降49.7%，推出土地宗数649宗，环比下降48.5%。同时，我们发现，为了促进土地成交，核心城市明显增加了优质地块的供给。

成交方面，2024年2月亿翰智库监测城市宅地成交总建筑面积为1395.7万平米，同比下降59.7%，环比下降65.8%。

2024年开年市场表现不佳，在新房市场成交继续下行的情况下，土地成交恐难有起色，市场低迷状态将持续，城市仍需通过增供优质地块才能提升土地成交规模和热度。

销售普遍惨淡，民企获“白名单”融资仍较少

2月，企业投资力度与1月基本持平，央企、民企投资占比有所上升，民企投资比例上升主要是由于本土民企在杭州土拍中拿下多宗地块。

销售方面，房企销售普遍惨淡，TOP200房企销售额继续刷新2017年以来的最差单月水平。

融资方面，信用债发行规模有所下降，地方国企占据绝对主导，融资协调机制取得阶段性进展，不过目前民企得到的融资支持仍然较少；同时海外融资依旧可谓“冰封”，未有真正意义上的房地产开发企业能够在海外得到融资。

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div.autoTypeSetting24psection > p,div.autoTypeSetting24psection > section{margin-bottom: 24px;}