两会定调房地产,2024年政策或在三方面发力——2月房地产行业月报(第68期)
亿翰月报(2月)
行业政策:两会定调化解风险,2024年政策有三大看点
住宅市场:成交普遍探底,3月回升预计有限
土地市场:供需规模双降,杭州土拍保持热度
企业表现:销售普遍惨淡,民企获“白名单”融资仍较少
两会定调化解风险,2024年政策有三大看点
3月初,两会在风险防控和处置的大框架下定调房地产,提出了治标与治本的两大政策方向,据此我们认为2024年行业政策的看点主要在三方面,一是融资端的落地效果以及政策加码,二是需求端进一步促进多样化改善性需求释放的政策,以及商品房相关基础性制度构建,三是保障端的规划情况和建设进度。
回到2月具体政策,供需两端的政策力度并不大,需求端主要是几个核心城市出台边际宽松政策,融资端主要是城市房地产融资协调机制的继续推进。
成交普遍探底,3月回升预计有限
从我们监测的40城数据来看,2月全国商品住宅销售面积为618.3万平米,同比下行65.6%,环比下行42.6%,继2020年2月,此次是2017年以来40城成交量再度跌下1000万方,成为2020年2月之外的又一最差单月成交。
总而言之,2月市场成交十分惨淡,对于大部分城市来说,成交已经来到了2017年以来的底部,且这种行情是普遍的,过往显示韧性的城市也未能幸免。
市场行情如此低迷,是由于在此前导致市场下行的种种原因上,叠加了春节期间供需双方均无信心这一因素。
对于3月行情,我们认为“小阳春”或难以出现,基于房企推货和营销发力,成交量在底部水平上环比上升并不难,但是成交绝对量预计维持低位。
供需规模双降,杭州土拍保持热度
2024年2月,亿翰智库监测城市住宅用地供应建筑面积1009.5万平米,环比下降49.7%,推出土地宗数649宗,环比下降48.5%。同时,我们发现,为了促进土地成交,核心城市明显增加了优质地块的供给。
成交方面,2024年2月亿翰智库监测城市宅地成交总建筑面积为1395.7万平米,同比下降59.7%,环比下降65.8%。
2024年开年市场表现不佳,在新房市场成交继续下行的情况下,土地成交恐难有起色,市场低迷状态将持续,城市仍需通过增供优质地块才能提升土地成交规模和热度。
销售普遍惨淡,民企获“白名单”融资仍较少
2月,企业投资力度与1月基本持平,央企、民企投资占比有所上升,民企投资比例上升主要是由于本土民企在杭州土拍中拿下多宗地块。
销售方面,房企销售普遍惨淡,TOP200房企销售额继续刷新2017年以来的最差单月水平。
融资方面,信用债发行规模有所下降,地方国企占据绝对主导,融资协调机制取得阶段性进展,不过目前民企得到的融资支持仍然较少;同时海外融资依旧可谓“冰封”,未有真正意义上的房地产开发企业能够在海外得到融资。
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#07c160;–weui-BLUE: #10aeff;–weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;–weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;–weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);–weui-LINK: #7d90a9;–weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;–weui-FG: #fff;–weui-BG: #000;–weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);–weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);–weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);–weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);–weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);–weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);–weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);–weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);–weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);–weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){–discussInput-BG: rgba(255, 255, 255, .03)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){–nickName-FG: 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59, .1);–weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);–weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);–weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);–weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);–weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);–weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){–appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}
div.autoTypeSetting24psection > p,div.autoTypeSetting24psection > section{margin-bottom: 24px;}
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